In South Africa there will be much uncertainty over business. The uncertainty about Jacob Zuma’s (President of South Africa)departure will look large and business will be cautious.  However the caution should not be seen as doom – there are brighter lights on the horizon. No shining lights, and no immediate turn around to the business but a better leadership.

 

AirBnb continues to bite heavily into the hotel space, both for corporate and leisure travel.  Although any hoteliers are casual about the threat posed by AirBnb, you cannot simply bring thousands of new bedrooms into the market without it having an impact on occupancies.ADR will be under pressure again next year, as business look to be cautious on opening.

 

In the UK the prospect of a full 12 months of Brexit progression. Talks and negotiations will go back and forth … and again businesses will be cautions, waiting for some certainty.

The weaker Brexit pound makes the UK more affordable than before, so leisure travel in particular will be strong.  So, for the UK generally good leisure prospects ( due to influx of visitors from EU) and more domestic travel by the Brits themselves.  Business travel will be weaker.

Other International matters loom large – North Korea, could that escalate? That would change things. Trump isn’t making the progress he promised – each step seems to be frustrating for him.  What will he do do hold on to his Presidency?  Terrorism is still a real threat – although ISIS appears to have been weakened, they are still about, and now in smaller cells intent on making a brand name for themselves.  We had Al Quaeda come and go, the Taliban went and came back and ISIS has come and now gone into hiding.

Globally, things seem to be a little more stable. Footsie 100 just closed at a new record high. Business in general is a little more confident. So I think much is in place for 2018 to be a generally good year, but there are plenty of dangers in the shadows… if they step of out of the shadows then things could change very quickly.

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